Lex专栏 危机对万科或许意味着机会“酷游ku官网”

本文摘要：Clichés are often true, and at the moment this one is apt: the Chinese word for crisis also implies opportunity. On Friday, Hong Kong- and China-listed property developer China Vanke announced first-half results. Revenues rose one quarter — mostly on volume growth; average prices were down just shy of 3 per cent.陈词滥调中往往蕴含着真知灼见，此时此刻下面这个词就很合乎这个观点：中文中的“危机”一词也包括“机会”的意思。

Clichés are often true, and at the moment this one is apt: the Chinese word for crisis also implies opportunity. On Friday, Hong Kong- and China-listed property developer China Vanke announced first-half results. Revenues rose one quarter — mostly on volume growth; average prices were down just shy of 3 per cent.陈词滥调中往往蕴含着真知灼见，此时此刻下面这个词就很合乎这个观点：中文中的“危机”一词也包括“机会”的意思。周一，在香港和中国内地两地上市的房地产开发商万科(China Vanke)公布了上半年业绩。

营收快速增长将近四分之一——主要是拜为销售面积快速增长所赐；销售均价则上升了大约3%。Along with peers China Overseas Land and Investment and China Resources Land, Vanke trades on single-digit multiples of 2015 earnings, for growth in the low to mid teens. Cheap? That depends where we are in the cycle. Since April, property prices have merely stopped falling. If they resume their tumble, the low multiple will prove painfully deceptive.与中国海外发展(China Overseas Land and Investment)和华润置地(China Resources Land)两家同行一样，按2015年盈利（预期增幅13%至16%吧）计算出来，万科股票的市盈率为个位数。低廉吗？这要看我们处在周期中的什么方位。今年4月以来，房价只是暂停了暴跌。

如果房价完全恢复下降的话，低市盈率将被证明极具欺骗性。China’s economy looks shaky, with last week’s adjustment to the renminbi taken as a sign that it could be worse than feared. Still, macro data have been poor for some time — yet Vanke’s numbers were far from terrible. This year, supply has fallen much more sharply than demand. Figures from China’s National Bureau of Statistics show completed residential projects’ gross floor area (GFA) down 16 per cent year on year, even as the GFA of residential sales rose 7 per cent. The GFA for new projects commenced — which would become available in about a year — has fallen by nearly a fifth. Land purchases have collapsed by a third.中国经济看上去很不振，上周对人民币的调整被看做一个信号：中国经济状况有可能比人们忧虑的还要难受。不过，虽然一段时间以来的宏观经济数据展现出不欠佳，但万科的业绩可是一点都不差劲。

今年以来，相比市场需求，供给的降幅要小得多。中国国家统计局的数据表明，完工住宅项目总建筑面积(GFA)同比增加了16%，而同期销售的住宅总建筑总面积却快速增长了7%。新开工项目总建筑面积上升了近五分之一。

开发商拿地数量骤减了三分之一。Some of this is due to demand and supply mismatches: inventories in third tier cities remain high, curbing appetite for new projects. More vibrant top tier cities, such as Shenzhen which has led the turnround, look set to become supply constrained due to a scarce, and thus expensive, land bank.导致这种局面的部分原因在于供需不给定：三线城市库存依然很高，诱导了开发商上马新项目的兴趣。而在交易更为活跃的一线城市，例如已首度扭转局面的深圳，由于土地匮乏又喜，供应不致将严重不足。

This lends itself to a bullish thesis for sector leaders. COLI, China Resources Land and Vanke have been disciplined with their balance sheets. Vanke’s net debt to equity is a mere 16 per cent. As the renminbi weakens, offshore debt may have lost its appeal but onshore demand is healthy, with about $14bn of renminbi debt raised so far this year. Last week, regulators approved Vanke to issue $1.4bn in bonds.这为行业龙头获取了悲观的理由。中国海外发展、华润置地和万科仍然都严格管理资产负债表。万科的净债务与股东权益的比率只有16%。随着人民币回头硬，离岸债务有可能早已丧失吸引力，但在岸市场需求还很身体健康——今年目前为止共计发售了大约140亿美元的人民币债券。

上周，监管机构批准后了万科发售14亿美元的债券。Goldman Sachs figures show the consolidation trend has been accelerating. In the year to July, the top 17 developers increased their market share to 22 per cent, up 5 percentage points and the biggest gain since at least 2007. The crisis is not the same for everyone; that is why it will create opportunities.高盛(Goldman Sachs)的数据表明，房地产业的统合趋势仍然在加快。在截至7月的一年中，中国17家仅次于开发商的市场份额不断扩大到22%，下降5个百分点，是最少自2007年以来的仅次于增幅。危机对每个人来说是不一样的，这就是为什么它需要建构出有机会。

本文来源：酷游ku官网-www.kunstenhuis.com